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Prediction for CME (2023-11-24T10:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-24T10:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27863/-1
CME Note: This CME is faintly seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M1.1 class flare from AR13499 (S18W02) peaking at 2023-11-24T09:33Z, with moving/opening field lines seen to the SW of the active region. There is no evidence of arrival in real time solar wind timelines at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-26T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: T2023-11-24 13:53
Radial velocity (km/s): 893
Longitude (deg): 12
Latitude (deg):-24
Half-angular width (deg):25

Notes: Enlil output shows bulk of CME pass under the Earth's magnetosphere. Grazing impact second half of 26-Nov.

Lead Time: 40.83 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-11-25T01:10Z

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